“I see too many flags.� --skrumgaer

After observing play at the 1900+ tables, I got the impression that the top players are very cautious—they don’t want to take risks that jeopardize their Elo scores. Hence, lots of flags. Or, as I have commented several times while watching, too many flags. Also, there is evidence of high diplomacy: players using each others’ names instead of their colors, players reminding each other of favors given in previous games, open identification of pga’s, and a new one on me: open identification of pge’s, or “pre-game enemies�.

I decided that some statistical analysis was in order. Are diplomatic skills more important at the higher-ranking tables? Do players get killed off faster at the lower ranking tables?

I collected data for 131 games in progress. Of these, 8 were at the 1900+ tables, 19 at the 1700+ tables, 30 at the 1500+ tables, and 74 at the no-limit tables. Obviously, the number of observations is skewed in favor of the lower ranking tables, so the stats for them are more reliable.

My findings:

1. The game gets less deadly as players advance to higher tables, except for the highest rank of tables. The linear regressions suggest that if all games were played out to a single player finish, zero limit games would last 43 rounds on average, 1500+ games would last 62 rounds, 1700+ games would last about 80 rounds, but 1900+ games would be over in about 35 rounds. But keep in mind that the data are less reliable for the higher-level tables.

2. The average number of players for a game in progress is between 5 and 6 players for all levels of tables, but the average age of a game in progress is between 10 and 12 rounds for the lower level of tables, but only 8 rounds for the 1900+ tables.

My hypothesis:

The highest-Elo players are so sensitive about big losses that they suicide quickly if they have bad starting positions to minimize their dom point losses. So the 1900+ tables have an unusually large kill rate in the first three rounds. After that, there is some maneuvering for rank, minor transfers of territory, players reminding each other of their pre-game obligations, flags, and the game is over.

Remedy:

A remedy suggests that there is a problem, and I don’t know if there is a problem here that has to be remedied. Something else I observed, thought, is that lesser-ranked players are discouraged from sitting at the table. But I will offer a remedy for that in a different thread.