I had a 8v5, 8v4 and 8v6 lose back to back to back one time and it cost me the game, everyone has horror stories. Cope.

> Odds of losing all 4 of those rolls in one
> turn:
>
> 0.5842%

Now hold up son... I ain't no mathematical genius, but I think the implication you're making - that a rare thing happened - is fallacious. (heh heh heh... fallacious...)

Think of it this way: if you flipped a fair coin 5 times, the chance of any given outcome, say H H T H H is one over 2 to the 5th power - very small. You could say, BEFORE you started flipping your coins, that the chance of getting H H T H H is very small. And in fact if you predicted that particular outcome beforehand, and then it happened, that'd be a pretty rare thing. But the fact that a given outcome occurred without you predicting it is not remarkable.

To bring it to your current situation, if you had started out the game saying "I am going to lose the next four rolls", and then you lost them at those odds, THEN I'd buy ya a beer. The fact that you lost those rolls without predicting it... well pal, that just plain sucks.

Really, the lesson you should've taken away from that is to never attack cutiepie.

I agree in some sense, Decider. If I picked any 5 different outcomes to occur, the odds would be small, even if the roll results were favorable, I see what you mean. Heck, if I predicted 1000 different outcomes to occur, the value would be essentially zero, whether I won them or not.

However, in this case, it is significant, because the outcome of the series of rolls is the fact that I lost them all. If I won one of the rolls, the argument wouldn't have any merit since I didn't pick WHICH roll would be the one I would win. However, since all of them lost, 0.58% of something happening is small no matter what way you look at it...and I think it does have some further significance because it was the first turn.

It all depends upon whether you look at the specific order in which they happened or just the fact that it happened. (there is some statistics term for this I can't remember) Since you can only order L L L L one way, in this case they are both the same thing.

And Gunvagr, I forgot about this right after I posted it. I think that means I did a pretty good job of coping, no? Yet you seem to remember this "one time" in the past, as well as the specific dice match ups in the rolls. So, who needs to cope again?

haha, I agree kwizatz, I definetly won't attack her next time :)

No, sorry.

I used to think it was completely fair and that crap like that happens to everyone, too. Not anymore. The one-die-advantage losses are so embarrassingly common that the hesitation people take before trying them is palpable. You can almost hear them thinking "I've been screwed on 5v4 so many times, do I dare try it now?"

One-die-advantage losses are almost certainly not obeying anything approaching probability -- at least not in my experience.

They are perfectly obeying probability.

Most of the one-die advantage situations, esp. the CLASSIC screwjobs 5v4 and 4v3, are basically 60-40.

Do you realize that 60-40 is more or less indistinguishable from 50-50 as far as human observation is concerned? It's the difference between getting something half the time or a little bit better than half the time.

People have this idea like just because the odds might be 70-30 for something, that they might as well be 100-0. Dude, that 70 is NOT a hundred. 30% of the time is actually a very significant percentage and should be expected to rear its head on you at least once per game.

If I sold you a lottery ticket with a 30% chance of winning, you'd be pretty excited, right?

another way of putting it:
=.58% means you will lose all 4 of those attacks around every 200 times you do such a thing...
meaning: 199 other times you will at least win one of those attacks.

So be kinda happy you had a chance to get out of a crappy start rather early.

oh, what was I thinking!! You attacked cutiepie??? LOL

You fool. Everyone knows cutiepie has the world's best defense rolls. 8v3? 7v2? watch out! Honestly, I don't bother attacking her unless I have at least 9 extra dice..

as for the 'coping' part - I just meant that everyone has their memorable losses and 'what the hell!' moments. Yes, some of them are very memorable. The difference is, I don't go and make a post about them =P