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Skrumgaer on the First MonthiVersary
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skrumgaer wrote
at 5:31 PM, Tuesday March 13, 2007 EDT
It being the first monthiversary of play under the new scoring rules, I thought it incumbent upon me (if not elected) to review the top 25 players under three scoring systems: the Elo Rating, the Grunvagr Decimal System, and the Test Against Pure Luck (the latter introduced by me, technically Pearson’s chi square goodness of fit against a uniform distribution x 100).
I glommed Ryan’s Top 25 List—names, flags, avatars, and all—and pasted it into my monster spreadsheet, cranked out all the Test Against Pure Luck (TAPL) scores, and sorted by descending TAPL score, then added my own scores at the bottom. The results are shown in the table below. Most of the profiles show maximum percentages for first and second place. These are likely the results of lots of 1-2 truces. Some profiles, like mine, show more of a camelback shape, with fewer second places finishes than firsts. These are likely 1-2 truce avoiders. A few profiles show high percentages for sixth and seventh place finishes. These are likely players who walk away from the table when the initial setup is bad. 13 (5.89) Rindow 139 2038 (3rd) 572 17% 19% 18% 16% 12% 7% 8% 5843 5 (11.48) Tomster 0 1978 (17th) 228 18% 26% 13% 10% 8% 12% 10% 3795 9 (7.01) Wicked! 0 1954 (28th) 89 26% 23% 8% 5% 20% 7% 6% 3121 19 (4.33) Lothros -3 1853 (134th) 201 21% 14% 13% 18% 14% 5% 10% 2340 22 (3.58) Suicide Commando 0 1719 (604th) 203 22% 14% 10% 8% 13% 11% 19% 2190 7 (8.03) Stoudemire 0 2025 (5th) 252 16% 21% 16% 11% 9% 11% 11% 1962 1 (16.52) kwizatz 35 2054 (1st) 254 22% 16% 12% 10% 12% 11% 13% 1851 6 (9.48) rewind 0 1898 (75th) 225 22% 16% 13% 9% 12% 10% 15% 1848 25 (3.01) Xerxes855 -84 1909 (60th) 278 20% 14% 13% 15% 11% 16% 8% 1728 2 (16.07) Grunvagr -101 1902 (68th) 445 17% 13% 19% 13% 12% 12% 11% 1685 3 (13.59) rnd -53 1991 (14th) 98 23% 23% 13% 10% 9% 9% 11% 1666 10 (6.71) DoobiusMalcor 0 1752 (414th) 285 20% 16% 10% 15% 10% 12% 13% 1588 11 (6.09) mschneit 0 1951 (30th) 229 16% 21% 15% 10% 13% 10% 11% 1570 16 (5.78) beyazguvercinus 41 1925 (49th) 268 18% 19% 13% 15% 10% 10% 12% 1512 18 (4.65) petomni -34 1902 (68th) 381 18% 16% 10% 14% 10% 14% 14% 1415 8 (7.04) integral 39 1964 (21st) 295 17% 19% 12% 13% 14% 11% 10% 1349 24 (3.19) bcmeagles 28 1882 (96th) 252 14% 17% 18% 15% 12% 10% 9% 1278 4 (12.27) Canarioz -23 1955 (26th) 294 20% 15% 13% 13% 12% 11% 13% 1113 23 (3.51) XicaDaSilva -22 1981 (16th) 205 15% 20% 13% 16% 12% 10% 11% 1040 20 (3.93) danceable -52 1672 (962nd) 754 15% 14% 14% 15% 14% 14% 10% 969 15 (5.82) MadWilly -164 1826 (198th) 387 17% 12% 10% 14% 14% 16% 14% 912 17 (5.75) Requin 0 1933 (41st) 120 22% 14% 15% 9% 12% 15% 11% 891 14 (5.87) triplehelix 0 2005 (9th) 214 19% 15% 10% 12% 11% 14% 15% 856 12 (6.01) Smitri 0 1727 (554th) 361 16% 16% 13% 11% 11% 16% 14% 799 21 (3.83) Transitional_Milk -28 1936 (38th) 202 15% 17% 17% 11% 15% 13% 9% 794 460 (0.11) skrumgaer -57 1685 (846th) 246 14% 8% 16% 21% 13% 12% 13% 1669 |
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OldElvis wrote
at 10:26 PM, Tuesday March 13, 2007 EDT I still cannot believe the record on Wicked. at over 1/2 of his games he finishes 1st or Second. Then the Third most frequent is 5th place. How the heck can he do that. I am also amazed at the small number of games.
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accountx3 wrote
at 10:36 PM, Tuesday March 13, 2007 EDT puzzling....perhaps:
1) he's an excellent player! 2) he's an excellent player?!?! 3) are the cheat codes still working? 4) he beat the elo ranking system 5) he's an excellent player, really! 6) he's the luckiest guy on kdice! 7) he has help from another player? 8) he can cause the game to lag at critical moments? 9) he's an excellent player, i swear! 10) he is ryan in disguise....... he should have a wiki site to share his winning strategy................... |
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CoMik wrote
at 1:11 AM, Wednesday March 14, 2007 EDT or...the greatest secret of all, wicked is a girl...OMG. It's true though...
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Star Block! wrote
at 9:33 AM, Wednesday March 14, 2007 EDT Whoa, it looks like the % of 1st and 2nd for top 25 has gone down with the new scoring rules!
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somnambulisa wrote
at 11:51 AM, Wednesday March 14, 2007 EDT "or...the greatest secret of all, wicked is a girl..."
That doesn't help. But I am going to start watching Wicked play. |
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somnambulisa wrote
at 11:51 AM, Wednesday March 14, 2007 EDT And the kwizatz, of course.
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DealOrNoDeal wrote
at 1:45 PM, Wednesday March 14, 2007 EDT @skrumgaer
"Most of the profiles show maximum percentages for first and second place. These are likely the results of lots of 1-2 truces." This is BS, these are top players they do get more top 3 finishes than the others ... your analysis is total crap how do you know who truced/nija fagged/pga from only the percentages? quality of opposition also counts. give it up |
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Star Block! wrote
at 2:01 PM, Wednesday March 14, 2007 EDT The players that 1-2 truce the most are more likely to have the exceptionally high 3rd percentages.
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skrumgaer wrote
at 5:47 PM, Wednesday March 14, 2007 EDT DealorNoDeal,
As I said at the very beginning, Ryan has not given us a set of percentages by table (that would be a 28 percentages if we have 4 levels of tables, instead of only 7). We have to make do with the numbers that Ryan gives us. Truce is a truce and pga is a truce. You are right, you can't tell them apart by the stats. But I never said you could. I've never heard of "nija fagged". Is that supposed to be "ninja", as totally berserk? If you don't like my stuff, don't bother to reply to it. It will disappear under the last 10 horizon that much faster. |
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Wicked! wrote
at 9:31 PM, Wednesday March 14, 2007 EDT I AM pretty amazing.
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